The Futurist: We Predict the iPhone Will Bomb
- June 7th, 2007
- 76 Comments

Until June 29, it’s hard to tell too much about the iPhone, but I can tell you with near-certainty one thing: the product was almost certainly rushed to market before Apple’s engineers would have liked.
At MacWorld, Jobs said: “We’re shipping them in June”. Had the phone release date been set in July or August, the entire tech world’s collective red flag would have swung. So they set the release date as June 29 — a Friday, and the last weekday of the month. This, coupled with the fact that Apple has never, in recent memory, released a product on a Friday, should make everybody say “Hmmmm,” and suggests they took a calculated risk of releasing a product that might be a little buggy (probably about as bad as the first run of screen-flickering, case-cracking, motherboard-busted MacBooks), rather than suffer the embarrassment of not keeping their word.
Which means that when the iPhone comes, Digg will likely be full of horror stories from the poor saps who camped out at their local AT&T store, only to find their purchase was buggier than a camp cabin.
Here’s what we’re predicting will go wrong with the iPhone, and a little about what may go right.
CRACKED SCREENS
The iPhone is thin — just 11.6mm — and nearly the entire front is made up of the much-heralded touchscreen. That means glass. And, as anybody who has ever tossed a Wiimote knows, glass breaks. So when Mr. Customer gets a shiny new iPhone and sticks it in his back pocket (after all, that’s where he’s kept EVERY phone since the StarTAC), don’t be surprised if he finds that glass screen can’t sustain all 200 pounds of him. Cracked screens will be to the iPhone what scratched backs were to the Nano.
THAT “KEYBOARD”
That virtual keyboard will be about as useful for tapping out emails and text messages as a rotary phone. Don’t be surprised if a sizable contingent of iPhone buyers express some remorse at ditching their BlackBerry when they spend an extra hour each day pumping out emails on the road.
TAKE THAT RAZR!
Thank goodness for 3.5mm headphone jacks. If Apple had been stupid enough to include an undersized socket, that alone would be reason enough for many of us to pack a separate music player (which sort of defeats the purpose of having an iPhone, now doesn’t it?)
SLURP AWAY
And about that WiFi. Chances are it won’t be smiled upon, but the smart money says that you guys find a way to slurp (SHARE) songs with other iPhone users, and chances are they’ll be a lot easier to find than one of those “one million” Zunes in the wild (and certainly won’t be bogged down by songs that expire after a few listens.)
WORST SOFTWARE IDEA EVER
Expect there to be absolutely zero demand for a “Bootcamp Mobile,” which would let insane iPhone users load up Windows Mobile on their iPhone. Please don’t do it, Apple.
A PHONE-LESS iPHONE
What kind of gray market will pop up for contract-less phones? Since AT&T is REQUIRING iPhone purchasers to sign up for 2-year contracts (any lawyers out there know if this is legal?), it isn’t difficult to imagine folks who have no real need for the phone aspect looking for a nice web-browsing widescreen iPod. But boy will they be expensive (probably about $750 new.)
BLANK SCREENS
And now for the number one prediction about problems that will plague the first run of iPhones off the assembly line: battery life. Try watching a movie for more than an hour on a 5G iPod and you’ll know what I’m talking about. Then throw in the battery-sucking demands of WiFi, phone calls, browsing the Web, and backlighting a larger screen than any iPod has ever had.
Here’s hoping my dire predictions come to naught.

Seth Porges writes on future technology and its role in personal electronics for his column, The Futurist. It appears every Thursday and an archive of past columns is available here.




Anonymous
1 year ago
fuck off
Reply
me (Who am I?)
1 year ago
u r full of crap
mike k. (Who am I?)
1 year ago
I can’t wait to watch videos through all those fingerprints on the touchscreen. Screens are for lookin’, not for fondling! ;)
Nick
1 year ago
Ok, so for what I read, all I saw here was 1 thing that may actually go wrong. The others were just tidbits about things that people may not like, but not things that will actually go wrong. Based on the fact that the phone will have a glass screen, you’re predicting it will bomb? I’m pretty sure most phones have glass screens, don’t they? It’ll be fine. I have an ipaq h6315 and have had it for 3 years now. I did break one screen climbing into a truck and over some equipment, but otherwise, its been fine for 3 years. No glass screen is gonna scare me away, and I’m sure ther will b eno shortage of iphone cases trotted out there, probably even before the thing is released.
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stwf (Who am I?)
1 year ago
man, are you wrong! Let’s count the ways…
1) Have never left a cell phone in my back pocket, don’t know anyone who does. btw ever heard of plastic?
2) I’m not sure texting is a huge part of the appeal. Alot of older people (who have the money for this) just want a cool phone, circa razr years ago. I don’t text that much and I’m already very slow…
3) Almost certain there will be a cell-less iPhone. In fact since Apple doesn’t have the rights to iPhone I wouldn’t be surpirsed if the final name of this product is ‘iPod Mobile’. I think the high price is partly not to cannibalize the ipod sales. Why Wouldn’t they do it?
4) I can watch movies for about 3 hrs on my 5G ipod.
5) 2 year cell contract is no big deal, I had to sign up for 2 to get my razr cheap years ago. I haven’t changed cell contracts since then, I am with cingular because of the superior reception in my area. So for me 2 years is no problem.
6) Is it way more than a cell phone or an ipod. Its the smallest mac ever, the true ultraportable, if you think AppleTV was opened up easily wait until we get our hands on this thing!
Luke
1 year ago
Wow, that’s a lot of speculation. One thing that people are missing is that this is a joint effort between Apple and AT&T. I’m not sure which weekday most phones are released, but Apple isn’t the only one pulling strings here.
As for rushing the product to market, I don’t think Apple would release the iPhone with serious stability issues. Steve Jobs has mentioned stability as a primary concern on several occasions. In any case, I doubt any product by Apple could be as unstable as Windows Mobile.
Finally, the author needs to think a little more about the battery life. The wireless capabilities will add a lot of overhead, but the power requirments of solid state memory are much less than the HD currently used in the 5G iPods.
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Chuck Cribbs
1 year ago
Apple has always used Friday (nights) for new OS releases. I figure they are giving us the weekend to play with it. What’s so bad about a Friday release for the iPhone? Yes, they said June and it gives them the last possible day to get as many shipments to all the various stores. So what? There seems to be a huge demand for the iPhone and they want as many in the stores as they can deliver.
And the keyboard is so much better than typing on a number pad when trying to text someone. Please. I’ll take a virtual kybd over that any day.
This column says mostly nothing. Or it’s intended to be tongue in cheek. I can’t decide.
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jfjhong
1 year ago
The iPhone will start a revolution: a new generation of cellphone devices that soon will have advanced computer-like features. The idea of having MAC OSX on a mobile device is just insane! However, I don’t think AT&T’s GSM/GPRS/EDGE network will be able to handle the high-end features of the iPhone.
It makes much more sense to release the iPhone on a CDMA network!
I hope Apple eventually makes a CDMA iPhone :D
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Humeid (Who am I?)
1 year ago
man.. nothing is perfect, and what the hell with glass will break.. u r nutts? u thin when engineers build a phone they will use regular cheap glass, u r weird, and on what basis u r predcting this crap, on basis that apple is number 4 laptop seller in US? or MP3 market leader?, i really feel sorry when someone spend house writing an article and its only full of hate and crap!! there will be a hell of competition and new innovations in the mobile market and technology.. and apple was and is always a pioneer in introducing new cool products.. write something from this basis, or shut the fuck up and wait for the products reviews and sales reports..
James (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Some of this stuff seems like total speculation, and I don’t see much evidence to back much of it up. For example, why would apple suddenly decide to do the same thing as the Zune and let users share their music via wi-fi? And at the end you hope your claims aren’t true at all, well then why did you make then up. Oh yeah, going against the iphone is sure to mean more attention to you and your article, even if it’s only because it’s a pure mess of nonsensical crap.
fog city dave (Who am I?)
1 year ago
I’ve read a lot of poorly written articles spreading fear, uncertainty, and doubt about the iPhone, but this one absolutely takes the cake. Wow, what a load of crap. Do you get paid for this?
bpm2000 (Who am I?)
1 year ago
“The iPhone will start a revolution: a new generation of cellphone devices that soon will have advanced computer-like features.”
LOL have you been living under a rock?
Nokia N95? HTCs, ABCDEFGs, really, any WiMo phone? ETC ETC…
Please.
Sharpe (Who am I?)
1 year ago
“Apple has always used Friday (nights) for new OS releases. I figure they are giving us the weekend to play with it.”
It seems anything that entices people to camp outside the stores is released on a Friday. I think Apple understands that the release is bigger at the end of week days than during the week days where people still have to work/go to school.
Jaclyn Perrelli (Who am I?)
1 year ago
If anything is wrong with the article I think we can all agree that the title was a bit too enthusiastic. Seth stated in the first paragraph that his prediction is the iPhone was rushed out to market…and this certainly is true. Read here Apple’s confession about having anxiety.
An excerpt from New York Times: “The anticipation, which is intense even by Jobsian standards, has led to some quiet, behind-the-scenes anxiety at Apple. Some Apple executives worry privately that expectations for the one-button phones may be too high and that first-generation buyers will end up disappointed.”
In addition, Apple realizes that the device is going to excel mostly due to the beauty of a simple system: advanced upgrades that happen remotely. As Jobs stated, “Software is what will make the difference”– other companies have failed to create in this area. Analysts agree that Apple’s iPhone software is what will give the device a five year lead in the market.
The bottom line is: this phone will definitely be a commercial hit, but first gen users will likely have let the air out of their tires by the time the second gen model rolls out. For reasons why this is true, refer to the above.
Eric (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Uh yeah, you have to BEG Apple to not do a bootcamp for Windows Mobile? What are you smoking?
Theo (Who am I?)
1 year ago
LOL…
It looks like you pissed off the Apple Fanboys :)
These people would buy a turd if it had an apple logo on it. Wait a sec, it looks like thats exactly what they’re planning to do on the 29th.
This phone is such hype. I have a phone that does all of these things allready, and it doesn’t cost 500 bucks, and its 3G.
Steve (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Well, to your point, June 29 is the last day Apple would have to meet it’s June commitment. But, Apple has also stated (and likewise is quite aware) that the iPhone execution must be flawless out of the gate. I’d imagine the QA on the iPhone has received more attention that other products coming from Apple.
To that end, there have been enough surveys which indicate this will be a strong seller, despite it’s high price. I hope you (Seth Porges) are willing to follow up with an article stating what a dope you were if (when) proven wrong. Though it’s commonly understood that articles like this are written soley for the intention of getting attention. In the end, people will only be remembered for being the jack@$$ who bet against the iPhone. Did you bet against the iPod too?
Carlos (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Your complaints, besides being pure speculation, are things that Apple would certaintly address. Do you honestly think that a company putting out a touch screen device would not contemplate the possibility of smudging/cracking? And if the iPhone is buggy upon release, which is not likely, the beauty of the device is that the software can/will be updated via iTunes to fix any potential problems.
I hope to hear from you a year from now when you are proven completely wrong. Prepare to eat crow.
flintwall (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Theo…’I have a phone that does all of these things allready(sic), and it doesn’t cost 500 bucks, and its 3G.’
Well…no you don’t have a phone like this - not even remotely similar in either looks, form factor, functionality, specification or any other metric you care to espouse for comparisons sake.
What you do have is an opinion based on what you own and suspect will be severely devalued come the 29th April. Yes, you probably do own a turd already.
Brown Zune anyone lol
Emile Baizel (Who am I?)
1 year ago
I don’t think the iPhone will flop from a technology standpoint. Apple’s been in the game long enough that I believe they will make a good if not great product.
I do think the phone will disappoint in terms of not living up to the hype that has been building up the first half of 2007. The phone costs a lot and doesn’t offer anything significantly different than what other vendors will soon offer.
The iPod was revolutionary in its capacity and size. The iPhone is just cool and hip and those things alone will not be enough for Apple to capture market share the way the iPod has.
Seth Porges (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Just to clarify–this WILL be successful commercially. Duh. You won’t be able to find one through the holiday season at least.
However, my belief that it will be plagued with technical errors is the main thrust here.
Theo (Who am I?)
1 year ago
flintwall,
I find it hilarious that any attack on Apple or their products automatically gets me labeled as a Microsoft supporter. It only goes to show your ignorance. You’ve already given the iphone a 5/5, even though you have yet to actually use one. And functionality? You mean the ability to browse the full web, use google maps, play mp3’s, etc? Sure, a phone has never done THAT before. Maybe you should take time off from waxing Steve Jobs balls and catch up on the latest cell phones, besides the iPhone. Any by the way, no I don’t and will never own a zune, and the release of the iPhone is June 29, not April 29, you idiot
Jordan Lund (Who am I?)
1 year ago
#1 reason it might not catch on… Price.
People are passing on the $600 Playstation 3 in droves yet they are supposed to snap up a $600 iPhone which does less? Unlikely.
#2 reason - as someone pointed out above - fingerprints. Either that or whoever makes those little eyeglass cloths is going to be making serious bank.
Botvinnik
1 year ago
So, uh, Theo you still failed to say what brand and model of cell phone that you already have that you claim does everything an iPhone does. Please respond.
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Ej (Who am I?)
1 year ago
>>>>>That means glass.
Yeah, I’m sure they’d use glass instead of, I don’t know polycarbonate.
twilightmoon (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Theo: “It looks like you pissed off the Apple Fanboys”
“I find it hilarious that any attack on Apple or their products automatically gets me labeled as a Microsoft supporter.”
You didn’t “attack Apple or their products” your opening statement was an attempt to directly insult those that like Apple or its products, you jerk.
I could care less if you like Microsoft, or “wax Bill Gates or Steve Balmers balls” as you so eloquently put it. You’re a tool either way.
You do not have a phone that remotely approaches the iPhone, sure you may have one that has some of the similar functions, but a river and some rocks has a “similar function” to a washing machine, and since I do not own a Dish Washing machine, my kitchen sink has a “similar function” to one. Does that make it the same? Hell no.
What you own, is crap. The fact that you don’t notice how bad your phone is, says a lot about you, and your (lack of) usability standards. The fact that you cannot even make your point without first insulting people because they love Apple or its products, also shows your level of ignorance plainly.
Keep using your crappy phone, and I hope you never get to own an iPhone, you don’t deserve it.
PhilK (Who am I?)
1 year ago
I find it doubtful Apple hasn’t considered the same hardware side features that every other mobile phone maker has for ~5 years now (I haven’t had a hardware failure on a phone in longer than I care to remember). Also, what freaking idiot puts anything breakable in their back pocket, seriously, how dumb do you have to be? Apple also should have (I could be wrong) learned about how long a battery is expected to last. I’m thinking it’ll be just more than fine for your average hipster that listens to 3 hours of music each way on their commute and maybe makes 1-2 hours worth of phone calls a day, does a bit of light browsing to check news and maybe txts throughout the workday. Their target market isn’t the compulsive email, RSS, txt junkie.
Apple’s going to dominate on the software side simply because their competing with painfully bad interfaces all the way around. WM6 is only minor progress and most manufacturers interfaces are worse than WM5 (haven’t tried Symbian).
I have a lot of trouble believing Apple’s going to enter a market as royally screwed up and behind the curve as the cellphone market and not dominate it completely. Sure the iPhone isn’t going to be perfect, but it’ll still likely be miles upon miles away from anything else.
Theo (Who am I?)
1 year ago
I called you APPLE FANBOYS because thats what you are. Only an APPLE FANBOY would say something like this:
“I hope you never get to own an iPhone, you don’t deserve it.”
LOL…
Thanks for proving my point. Gotta run, I’m getting a call on my washing machine…
twilightmoon (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Emile Baizel: “I do think the phone will disappoint in terms of not living up to the hype that has been building up the first half of 2007. The phone costs a lot and doesn’t offer anything significantly different than what other vendors will soon offer.”
Beg to differ here, it offers an entirely new user interface paradigm. A platform. I agree it does cost quite a bit. However, I’m not sure about “a lot” since even the so-called “free” cell phones cost 300 dollars which you’ll discover if you lose yours and have to buy a new one. The iPhone is only 200 more than that. The main point is that it’s not sold with any hardware subsidy. Still I’ll give you half credit for the price concern since I do believe that the price will be the main factor keeping many people away from buying one until the price comes down.
But the iPhone’s main feature is the interface, the software platform that puts it far ahead of anything else out there. The hardware is well done, but like the iPod it’s the software on the device and on the computer (integrating with the device) that will set it apart from all the also-rans.
Other manufacturers will be copying the hardware, and many will list the same “features” but none will remotely approach the level of usability that Apple has with its software. I would argue that software is what made the iPod a success and what continues to drive that success.
“The iPod was revolutionary in its capacity and size. The iPhone is just cool and hip and those things alone will not be enough for Apple to capture market share the way the iPod has.”
Again, we differ here, I believe the iPhone is far more revolutionary than the iPod ever was. Sure I won’t dispute it will need to come down in price a bit before it sees the mass market penetration that the iPod has now, but even the dimmest bulb knows that this will happen given a few years time, just by watching how the price of the iPod dropped while it got more features and better hardware designs.
Robert Hutwohl (Who am I?)
1 year ago
I can’t believe you are so lame. I certainly don’t care that you have anal tendencies because your fist is up your rear which has affected your thinking.
Peekay (Who am I?)
1 year ago
My reason for thinking that the iPhone may not do as well as expected is simply because there are still so many choices out there. I like my Treo, and I already get my music wirelessly through the “M” app from Mercora, so I don’t anticipate making a change anytime soon. I haven’t seen anything from the iPhone that would say I need to.
cameron (Who am I?)
1 year ago
You know, people always point to the MacBooks and MacBook Pros as a reason to be worried about the iPhone. I got a 1st generation Intel iMac and it works fine. The AppleTV has no reported widespread problems. There are more Apple products that work great than those with major problems.
As for the other points you made … we’ll see. I don’t think Apple would release the iPhone unless it was near-perfect. Steve Jobs is a well-known perfectionist, he wants the iPhone to be perfect because he uses it, he is personally invested.
Sure, the iPhone isn’t for everyone, but I think most consumer will jump at the chance to buy an iPhone.
Andrew (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Is your remit to write the news, or just whine into the keyboard? There might be good things and bad things about the iPhone and its initial shipments, but why spend your valuable time making predictions only 3 weeks ahead of its launch?? Are you a news site or a whiney site? - please let us know.
HAB (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Just another hit-whore with no actual research behind their writing.
Prepare to be wrong - very wrong.
jones (Who am I?)
1 year ago
My prediction: The iPhone will sell as many as Apple can make for through at least Jan 2008. That may still be less than 1% of the US cell phone market. But that should be considered a success, not a bomb.
As for your reasons (or lack thereof), we know that it has been in development for over 2.5 years, and we know many people have been using the iPhone over the last month. So I’m sure the touchscreen and battery have been thoroughly vetted. The last 2 months have likely been focused on tweaking the software.
As stated before, Apple has introduced products on Friday. The likely reason for waiting until the next to last day to debut it is to allow every Apple and AT&T store to build up sufficient stock so as not disappoint the first day buyers. But 2nd. 3rd, or 4th day buyers may have none.
damien (Who am I?)
1 year ago
@stwf
1) “Have never left a cell phone in my back pocket, don’t know anyone who does. btw ever heard of plastic?”
Are you kidding? OK, if I assume you actually DON’T know anyone who has lef their phone in their back pocket, then consider leaving it in your FRONT pocket — with your keys.
2) “I’m not sure texting is a huge part of the appeal.”
Agreed. I don’t text much, either. This is a Smart Phone, though.
3) “I think the high price is partly not to cannibalize the ipod sales. Why Wouldn’t they do it?”
You may be right about that. But, I’d totally buy a touchscreen iPod on the first day… not so much the iPhone, though. (see reasons below)
4) “I can watch movies for about 3 hrs on my 5G ipod.”
That’s great until you factor in web browsing (for email) and making phone calls.
5) “2 year cell contract is no big deal.”
Yes, but a 2-year REQUIREMENT for an unsubsidized phone may turn off a lot of consumers.l Usually, if you sign up for a longer contract, then the price of the phone drops significantly.
My final big gripe is the non-replaceable battery. Plus, I’ve dropped my cell phone about 3-5 times over a year and a half. I cannot imagine the iPhone would withstand such trauma.
No matter how much the iPhone sells, though, it’s already a success: The cell phone companies have gotten off of their butts and started making awesome phones to compete!
mackodpcs
1 year ago
wow.
how is this “going to bomb”
very badd title.
texting on-screen is sooo cool!!
who puts anything in their back-pocket… and why even the iPhone?
if you don’t want to waste your battery, then don’t watch movies!!! DUH!
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Tom (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Only two “bad” predictions, one of which (the screen) you are simply guessing and have no proof for, and the other (the keyboard) you have no way of knowing.
These knocks against the keyboard really crack me up. Tell me, when did the Blackberry and other smart phone keyboards all get so great? They’re all tiny, and they all suck. But you get used to it, and it’s the tool you use and it works for you because you want the service, convenience, luxury, etc. it provides. There is zero reason to think the same will not be true of the iPhone’s keyboard as well.
The majority of text messages are pumped out on a regular phone’s nine-digit keypad, fer chrissakes, so you think people can’t use a soft QWERTY board? Please.
Tito (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Jeez. Ever heard of Valium? My god, I haven’t heard such Bullsh#t dribble in years! And this is for a product that hasn’t even COME OUT yet! As much as there has been the “devout” clamoring to eat up any hype or rumor about the iPhone, there’s also the venomous crowd willing to chop off their left pinky before they say anything nice or remotely nice about the iPhone. I think it’s going to be pretty cool myself, but I think I will hold final judgement until I can ACTUALLY hold it and play with it. But really . . . you REALLY think the iPhone is going to bomb? Give me a break! Obviously you and John Dvorak love getting all the Mac fanatics foaming at the mouth for a few clicks and attention. That’s all I see this “prediction” as being. Just that. A little brat wanting some attention.
P.S. You and all the others that want their little 3/8″ keypads really crack me up. Seriously, this is what you prefer? I child’s size keypad to do your typing? This of course is besides the point of taking up about 4″ inches of bullshit space on ANY device. Those damn things give my hands cramps after about 20 minutes of that. You can have your “mini” keypad. I was using a touch screen device in Japan, and I have to tell ya, you get used to the thing in about 5 minutes and don’t look back after that. Plus, you don’t end up with Arthritis after a week.
Mike D (Who am I?)
1 year ago
This kind of writing gives blogs a bad name. And no, I’m not an Apple fanboy.
Greg (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Regarding the battery life comment. Part of the reason the 5G iPod dies so quickly is that it’s spinning a disc to play the movie. Ever watch a movie on a PSP off the memory stick? It last forever. Since the iPhone will be playing off of solid-state memory, I predict much better battery life for your viewing pleasure.
Mike Ark (Who am I?)
1 year ago
Phoneless iPhone? How could you get internet access without the phone contract?